Fred Thompson and the region he has to win: A closer look

By Tom Baxter
Editor
Southern Political Report

(9/6/07) The way some have described it to us over the past day or so, Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign organization is going to resemble one of those flashy, modern-day SEC passing offenses, even if the candidate bears a closer resemblance to one of the burly defensive linemen of old.

The organizational model, we’re told, is one that, more than in previous campaigns, involves putting together a team and building around their networks rather than organizing purely around geography. Some staffers will have responsibility for states that aren’t contiguous to each other, but which they know well.

“You find the right people in the early states, and you build on them,” one source in the Thompson campaign told us.

With that being said, it’s obvious, when you look at the candidate, the people he’s drawn around him and the challenges he faces in capturing the GOP nomination, that the South as a region is critically important to Thompson’s chances.

Start with the calendar. Thompson has little hope at this stage of overtaking his rivals in Iowa, New Hampshire, or the newcomer in the frontloading race, Michigan. He has to hope for success in South Carolina and Florida, and if that comes he’ll need solid performances across the South on Tsunami Tuesday (Feb. 5) and afterwards to grasp the nomination. It goes without saying that whoever wins the GOP nomination will also need a solid Republican South next year to win the White House.

Today, to get a closer look at how he’s doing in home territory, we’ve got in-depth reports on Thompson’s campaign from Gary Reese in Florida and Dick Pettys in Georgia.
Tomorrow, Lee Bandy will report from South Carolina on Thompson’s effort there, and we’ll be following up as the campaign takes shape in weeks ahead.

As Reese notes in his report, Thompson has drawn both his national political director, Randy Enwright, and his national communications director, Todd Harris, from Florida. He has also gathered an experienced team of Republican operatives with broad campaign experience across the South, such as Dean Rice, who has worked for both Thompson and Elizabeth Dole and has been tapped to run the critical South Carolina campaign, and Terry Benham, a Republican campaign veteran who’s directing the Thompson effort in his home state of Arkansas as well as Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

Despite the pre-announcement disarray in Thompson’s staff, his cadre in this part of the country exudes confidence. One of them told us to expect a number of defections from the campaigns of John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Duncan Hunter as the

Thompson effort takes on momentum after the announcement. The people switching allegiances, he said, are vital “grasstops” leaders – influentials with strong local Republican ties in their states.

Based on what we’ve heard from Republicans across the South, there’s good reason for this optimism.

Take Alabama. Although Thompson grew up in Lawrenceburg, Tenn., he was born in Sheffield, Ala. The Republican Party there has already had qualifying for delegates for the ’08 convention, and three GOP state senators – Jabo Waggoner of Birmingham, the Senate minority leader, Larry Dixon of Montgomery and Hank Erwin of Alabaster – had already pledged as Thompson delegates before Wednesday’s announcement.

Arkansas presents a tougher challenge due to the presence in the race of its former governor, Huckabee. But despite that, one party official told us she sees “a lot of excitement” over Thompson.

Thompson’s been in the second spot in a lot of polls, but in Oklahoma, he’s led in two online polls conducted by the party. State Corporation Commission Chairman Jeff Cloud and Tulsa attorney Steve Edwards are key Thompson supporters. In Texas, Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson – described by a Thompson staffer as “a grassroots machine” – and U.S. Rep. Louis Gohmert are part of the Thompson nucleus.

Tennessee, of course, is a foregone conclusion, with both U.S. senators, Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker, and four GOP House members already on board. According to U.S. Rep. Lyn Westmoreland, a Georgia supporter, U.S. Rep. Zack Wamp of Tennessee has become the unofficial chair of Thompson’s congressional supporters.

Elsewhere, the picture’s a little murkier, although still promising for Thompson.

We couldn’t find much evidence of a nucleus of key support yet in Virginia, for instance, but were told that some 5,000 volunteers have already signed up on the Thompson website. Rep. Sue Myrick of North Carolina supports Thompson, but a GOP official there told us there’s been no sign yet of a Thompson organization in the Tarheel State.

In Louisiana, Mississippi and Kentucky, governor’s races this year have put a brake on presidential organizing, but it shouldn’t take long for a Thompson campaign to get off the ground if he does well elsewhere.

Again, however, there’s no margin of error in this region: the former “Law and Order” actor and Tennessee prosecutor has to run the tables in the South to have a shot in the national competition. Even among Thompson’s announced supporters, there’s some feeling of impatience with the pace he’s set so far. The buzz around his announcement would have been even greater, Westmoreland said, if he’d made it in July or August.

“By the end of September, he’s got to have moved up in the polls,” the Georgia congressman said.

But those in Thompson’s Southern braintrust say their candidate has time to get the job done.

“You ought to be able to establish yourself in 120 days,” one said. “If you can’t, you’re really not the answer.”