Matt Towery's Inside
The Numbers:
The Unmaking of the American Presidency
By Matthew Towery
(1/31/08) Last Tuesday night's results from Florida in both the
Democratic and Republican Party presidential primaries were what
I expected, and then some.
Since well back into 2007, this column has been predicting that
Florida would decide both the Democratic and GOP nominations. I
believe it did, and in the process has blown apart the political
world we have known for decades.
First, John McCain. He's the ultimate "outsider" within
his own Republican Party. Neo-cons, establishment GOP bluebloods
and just about every too-cool-for-school Republican faction have
long held him in contempt. Now he's probably on his way to being
the Republican Party nominee for president.
He has wrought pure bedlam inside the Washington Beltway. From
talk-show hosts to longtime K Street lobbyists, the jig is up. They
must now either embrace McCain and his moderate (or liberal) instincts
or shut down for business.
There are two absolute truths here. First, for every Republican
who has felt left out of an exclusive rich man's GOP country club,
McCain's calm but resounding independence is a moment that declares
the end of the GOP establishment as we have known it.
Here's the other truth: John McCain can, on some issues, be just
about as far off from the traditional GOP scorecard as one can get.
From the Bush tax cuts to tort reform, McCain has blazed a trail
of working with the Democrats on often seemingly GOP issues. That's
the part about McCain that gives conservatives heartburn.
But there's heartburn and then there's nausea. In the world of
politics, the name Hillary Clinton sends the very same ilk I described
above into fits of rage. Well, guess what? Get ready to have plenty
of fits, guys and gals, because Hillary and Bill have once again
outsmarted the dim-witted Howard Dean, the leader of the Democratic
National Committee.
Dean didn't think that Florida would matter. He refused to allow
candidates to campaign in the state. It was his penalty for the
state's GOP-dominated legislature having moved the primary date
up, to follow so soon after his beloved Iowa and New Hampshire.
Well, Mr. Dean, Florida matters. With a massive turnout in a state
that has a single county that's more populated than the whole state
of Iowa, Florida Democrats spoke so loudly that not only could they
be heard all the way to California, but by the stubbornly devoted
populist candidate John Edwards as well. He beat even Republican
Rudy Giuliani to the punch in exiting the race before next week's
"Super Tuesday" vote.
Hey, Howard: You and the DNC made idiots of yourselves. And now
you have to pray the state forgives you in November for dissing
its Democrats in January.
A political earthquake is under way. Edward's exit clears the way
for white supporters of his candidacy to now consider Clinton in
southern states. That's where Obama's coalition of support has been
African-Americans, plus a sliver of white Democrats. And in really
big states in other regions -- where she's already ahead in the
polls -- Clinton now has retrorockets pushing her to the nomination.
Make no mistake: Much of the Democratic establishment in this nation
had abandoned Hillary Clinton. The newspapers that once endorsed
Bill were suddenly boosting Obama. Bill Clinton, the oft-proclaimed
"first black president," had been in news accounts suddenly
turned into some bigoted old man. Just as it appeared that all who
wanted the Democratic Party to turn hard left were on their way,
Florida dropped a huge bomb.
Will John Edwards reappear on the scene? Not as a power broker
at a national convention. But perhaps in other roles. One does not
give up an additional week of campaigning, knowing full well that
it benefits one opponent over the other, without some thought of
a political pot of gold under a future rainbow.
So now comes the hard part. As Obama fever starts to break out
into a cold sweat, what do those who had their foot on Hillary Clinton's
throat do? Do they restore Bill Clinton to the hero of African-Americans;
and if not, can the Democrats turn out this critical part of their
coalition in November?
And as for the Republicans, how do those who fought John McCain
-- not just recently, but for decades -- find a way to embrace his
candidacy? More important, how will they ever erase their attitudes
from his very long memory? A long, long memory.
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Matt Towery served as the chairman of former Speaker Newt Gingrich's
political organization from 1992 until Gingrich left Congress. He
is a former Georgia state representative, the author of several
books and currently heads the polling and political information
firm InsiderAdvantage. To find out more about Matthew Towery and
read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists,
visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2007 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.
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